This type of crises;
Everyone thinks they are rich,
risk is invisible,
It comes at the end of periods when money is abundant but judgment is scarce.
I expect such a picture in 2026.
But calm down…
Not yet.
Gold, Silver, Platinum: These Speak While Things Burn
The center of gravity of this period is clear.
If anyone has expectations elsewhere
Either he is an amateur at these things
or he still hasn’t figured out which game is set on the table.
Silver
The $90-100 level is the main target for silver.
If conditions are difficult, $120 is also on the table.
But those who argue about whether silver is “up or down” are beside the point anyway.
Silver is not a metal of fear.
It is industry, demand, growth.
If liquidity is expanding, if the world hasn’t stopped producing
Silver plays a different game than gold.
Here someone comes along and says, “It has risen too high.”
This sentence explains:
The chart has been seen, the rates have never been opened.
Those who speak without looking at the gold/silver ratio
He doesn’t comment, he just pours out his heart.
Gold
I see the $ 5,000 – 5,200 level below as the peak area.
Afterwards, a rest period of at least 1 year would not be surprising.
Gold is like the last safety belt before an accident.
But there is a small detail:
If everyone wears their seatbelt, who will be harmed in the accident?
After gold peaked
Patience, not excitement, comes into play.
Those who do not know this say “gold is spoiled”.
Those who know remain silent.
Silence is sometimes the most expensive information.
Platinum
The banks’ coolest cards start with platinum.
Gold comes, silver stays last.
The status language does not change, only the price tags change.
It may have lost its historical power on the pricing side for a while
But it is waiting for the time when it will fulfill its mission in platinum credit cards.
Its supply is limited.
The market is shallow.
His movement is harsh.
Under these conditions, a range of 2,000 – 2,500 dollars would not be surprising.
Where Does the Interest Shift in the Second Quarter?
With the second quarter, interest in oil increased
and with it it shifts to the entire commodity block.
Oil
Oil is a difficult commodity.
It cannot be read only with the economic calendar.
Geopolitical risks, supply disruptions, political tensions
This is a direct part of the job.
Before the liquidity crisis
It is possible for oil to pause from time to time.
But when you make your permanent move
Its effect does not remain alone.
If oil rises, in order:
wheat
Egypt
soy
sugar
cotton
coffee
cocoa
takes action.
Energy is a cost in agriculture.
Any analysis that omits this is incomplete.
Doctor Copper
Copper in the old economy:
construction, industry, infrastructure.
Copper in the new economy:
electrification,
renewable energy,
electric vehicles,
charging infrastructure.
It’s not actually a secret why copper should go up:
Establishing a new mine takes years
Supply cannot expand in the short run
Electrification demand is structural
China’s monetary easing steps support industrial metal demand
Infrastructure investments are not canceled even if they are postponed
Copper will definitely reach the pricing it deserves.
The debate is not “will it be possible”,
It’s a matter of when it will happen.
Copper Is Not Alone
Copper goes first, but the crowd follows:
aluminum
nickel
zinc
lead
tin
cobalt
lithium
iron ore
As long as liquidity expands
in all industrial metals
There is potential for a broad-based rally.
This Cycle Reminds Me of a Place
What happened in 2020?
Gold and silver peaked.
Many people said “okay, this is the end of it”.
But the commodity bloc
It continued to make money until the beginning of 2022.
Today the picture is familiar.
Same cuisine, same recipe.
Only those who can’t wait for the food to cook
He leaves the table early.
When is the crisis?
If it were me:
I will be more cautious after April.
After June, I won’t drink coffee without checking the screen.
But let’s repeat:
Crises come when prices are at the top, not when they are at the bottom.
So still:
not risen,
with a story,
requiring patience
instruments in play.
Conclusion
And this repeats
price for those who cannot read,
It produces wealth for those who study it.
I write what I know.
If you don’t understand, don’t worry.
The market teaches lessons again to those who do not understand.
Written by: Tekin Sekmez
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