Gold at $5000, silver at $100.
The market is intoxicated.
Reason is suspended, judgment is on leave, and experience is a subject of ridicule.
Peaks produce ego, not analysis.
Every parabolic rise ends the same way.
It punishes those who raise their self-confidence to the peak at the wrong time.
A surprise for those who look at the headlines,
a process of paying a price for those who know mathematics.
RATIO: WHERE THOSE WHO DON’T UNDERSTAND LOSE
The 50 level,
is historically the area where silver was considered expensive.
If this level is broken with weekly closes,
the 30 level awaits below.
The trace of 2011 is still there.
A ratio of 30 is not included in my expectations for now.
THOSE WHO TALK ABOUT 2026 WITHOUT KNOWING 2008
The picture before 2008:
Gold $1030,
Silver $21.
The ratio?
Around 50 again.
And after that?
One of the sharpest declines in history.
The market is cyclical.
Investors, however, have no memory.
GOLD WALKS, SILVER RUNS… THEN BOTH FALL UPSIDE DOWN
The rule is simple:
Gold goes first,
silver crawls along.
But silver surges during gold’s final upward wave.
We experienced exactly this in this rally.
The past is a mirror of the future.
And the tales begin:
“This time it’s different.”
“It won’t fall anymore.”
Tales are told at the summit.
PEAK REGIONS: I’M WRITING THIS EVEN IF YOU DON’T LIKE IT
The range I see for gold is clear:
$5000 – $5200,
$5500 if it struggles.
Silver is more volatile:
$100 – $120,
$150 if it breaks through. Yes, the margins are wide.
No, the story hasn’t changed.
WARNING TO THE SILVER TRADER: STOP LOSS MAY BETRAY YOU
Trailing stop losses may have worked until now.
But stop losses don’t work in high volatility,
you’ll get swept away.
You set a stop loss at $100,
and find yourself sold at $85.
The door is small, many want to get out.
When it’s your turn, it will be too late.
That’s why a profit stop loss is healthier.
Percentage?
The risk is yours, the decision is yours.
GOLD AND SILVER ARE ENDING, COMMODITIES ARE JUST BEGINNING
The story may be ending for gold and silver.
But the commodity trend is just beginning.
Uranium:
Clean energy, a long story.
Declines are buying opportunities until the liquidity crisis arrives.
Copper:
It hasn’t exploded yet.
Like silver’s old self. And oil…
Look at the gold-oil chart.
Don’t forget the America-Iran impasse.
Oil is preparing for the stage.
Soon everyone will be talking about oil instead of gold.
THE REAL PAINFUL PREDICTIONS
When the liquidity crisis arrives:
Gold:
3350 – 3500 dollar range.
It took itself too seriously, the market will bring it back into line.
Silver:
There will be those who laugh here.
25 – 35 dollars.
Looking at it from today, it seems difficult.
But yesterday, 100 dollars was also difficult.
I know silver well.
RATIO ABOVE 100: A FREE LESSON FROM HISTORY
Every level above 100,
especially for silver,
is an opportunity that history has offered repeatedly.
I expect the ratio to rise above 100 again within the next year.
Is it risky?
Yes.
Do I care?
No.
FAIRY TALES OR REALITY
In the investment world,
those who look at the headlines instead of reading charts,
those who listen to epics instead of counting cycles,
are in the majority. The number of mathematicians doing the calculations is known.
But in the end,
those sipping their whiskey by the pool,
are the minority of mathematicians.
As for the others?
This time, they are ready to sit cross-legged and listen to tales of collapse.
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