IF VIX EXCEEDS 30: THE BEATING LINE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
The moment the VIX (Fear Index) crosses the 30 barrier and starts to rise, civilization ends in the market, and the law of the jungle begins. In this liquidity slap, the hierarchy works perfectly: First, crypto assets are brought to the ground; wallets instantly turn to dust. Then, exchanges and the much-loved industrial metals line up. Gold? Gold is the big brother of this neighborhood, it takes the last blow. But don’t forget; if the VIX rises above 50, even that big brother will be shown the door like a drunk who can’t pay the bill at the nightclub. The new Fed chairman’s obsession with “turning off the tap” and the sudden hesitation in interest rate cuts make this “bear market” session inevitable.
THE IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL APOCALYPSE ON THE ISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE
While global markets are preparing for a massive downturn ranging from 15% to 30%, thinking that our Istanbul Stock Exchange will emerge unaffected is as naive as thinking you can convince a runaway truck to stop by making a “stop” sign with your hand. We have reached a point around the 14,000 mark where, if it tries to go up, the fuses blow, and if it looks down, it’s a precipice. When a global storm breaks out, those who say “I’m local, nothing will happen to me” are usually the first to be swept away. That’s why I’m pocketing my profits and withdrawing from the track, saying “cash is king.”
SURVIVAL SHOPPING LIST: WHERE ARE WE FILLING THE SHOPPING CART?
Everything may be incredibly expensive right now, but when the big “financial liquidation” I’m expecting in February and March arrives, and the market is overflowing with assets, we’ll be lying in wait at these levels:
BRENT CRUDE OIL: $50-$60 range. It’s already at rock bottom; soon an empty bottle of oil will be more expensive than the oil itself. Buy it and put it aside.
GOLD: Between $3800 and $4200. When the US and Iran start throwing slippers at each other tomorrow or the day after, you’ll only see these prices in old newspaper clippings.
SILVER: I’m not interested; but if it falls to $50-$60, it’s worth buying for a short-term “hit-and-run”. $65 will act as a magnet; we’ll talk again when the price hits there.
BIST 100: Around 280 in dollar terms… That’s when it’s time to collect the assets of those who are dreaming of “flying” today, as a “service fee.”
FINAL STOP: STAY IN THE FUND OR SINK WITH THE SHIP
The tightening macroeconomic data and liquidity crunch show that this correction is not just a “pause,” but a serious structural reset. If you are in Turkey, there’s no need for adventure; Money Market Funds are embracing you with a gross return of 3.5% – 4%. While everyone else is drenched and miserable in the storm, you can sip your hot coffee in these funds and watch the scenery.
In short, friends; the market is currently like the famous violinists of the Titanic; playing cheerful melodies until the ship starts to sink, trying to keep you afloat. But remember, the sound of the violin doesn’t fill your stomach, and the sea doesn’t forgive those who don’t carry life jackets (cash).
Note: This is not investment advice; it is merely a financial survival guide. If you lose money after reading this, blame it not on me, but on those naive friends who are still playing the violin while the ship is sinking!
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