{"id":792,"date":"2026-06-16T20:56:05","date_gmt":"2026-06-16T17:56:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thesilknews.com\/en\/?p=792"},"modified":"2026-06-16T20:56:06","modified_gmt":"2026-06-16T17:56:06","slug":"who-won-the-third-gulf-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thesilknews.com\/en\/index.php\/2026\/06\/16\/who-won-the-third-gulf-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Who Won The Third Gulf War?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Iran and the US plan to sign a Zarif-inspired<\/a> memorandum of understanding (MoU) on ending the Third Gulf War this Friday in Switzerland. The exact details aren\u2019t yet known, and Fortune<\/a> reported that there were at least three competing texts, but all of them \u201cinclude similar elements around reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway, giving Iran sanctions relief and opening the door to longer-term negotiations around its nuclear program.\u201d That\u2019s already enough to arrive at several very important conclusions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For starters, reopening the strait without Iran\u2019s wartime petroyuan toll booth<\/a> in place would represent a significant concession by the Islamic Republic, whose media surrogates celebrated<\/a> this model as an historic multipolar milestone. The same goes for resuming negotiations on its politically sensitive nuclear program. The sanctions relief in exchange might arguably be worth it, however, judging by this estimate here<\/a> of the profound economic-financial damage caused by the US\u2019 (imperfect) blockade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On that topic, it was explained here<\/a> in late March that \u201cThe US will have lost the Third Gulf War if China can still rely on Iran as a reliable low-cost energy supplier while turning the yuan into a global reserve currency that challenges the petrodollar\u201d, so preventing both is imperative from the US\u2019 perspective. With the petroyuan reportedly out of the picture, that leaves Iran\u2019s oil export dependence on China, but sanctions relief could help gradually redirect its sales (such as to India<\/a>) without disrupting the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Likewise, if reports<\/a> about a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran are true (even if the final sum is much lower but still tens of billions of dollars), then US and Gulf investments in Iran\u2019s energy industry could lead to them controlling its exports. It was assessed in January that \u201cThe US Wants To Replicate The Venezuelan Model In Iran<\/a>\u201d, which would be on the path to implementation in that scenario. The resultant interdependence could advance collective security<\/a> and facilitate the US\u2019 regional withdrawal<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s moderate (\u201creformist\u201d) and hardline (\u201cprincipalist\u201d) factions would therefore achieve some of their goals, the first with respect to sanctions relief and the second with regards to preserving the country\u2019s (arguably battered) armed forces as well as their missile stockpile, not to mention their political system. Nevertheless, the factional balance would have shifted in the moderate\u2019s favor since the US wouldn\u2019t sign a MoU if the moderates couldn\u2019t control \u201crogue\u201d hardliners, who could potentially rekindle the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It can therefore be concluded that the moderates beat the hardliners in Iran\u2019s deep state power struggle, but this was due to the US and Israel killing dozens of top hardline figures, after which their respective institutions (especially the IRGC) were weakened and ultimately tamed by the moderates. To be sure, \u201crogue\u201d hardliners \u2013 regardless of their relationship to the IRGC \u2013 could still sabotage the MoU, but Trump 2.0 feels comfortable enough that they won\u2019t otherwise it wouldn\u2019t go through with the signing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A new regional era is emerging whereby the Third Gulf War might very well lead to Iran\u2019s gradual reincorporation into the US-led Western order, albeit within limits, which lays the groundwork for better ties with its Gulf neighbors. In that scenario, Israel would stand to lose since it could no longer divide-and-rule Iran and the Gulf, nor would the US have its back<\/a> if Israel resumes hostilities with Iran due to the recent revival of the possibly irreconcilable Trump-Bibi rift<\/a>. Israel is therefore the war\u2019s biggest<\/a> loser<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article was originally published on\u00a0Andre Korybko<\/a>\u2018s Substack account and is republished with the author\u2019s permission.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Iran and the US plan to sign a Zarif-inspired memorandum of understanding (MoU) on ending the Third Gulf War this<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[266,168,290,167,169,151,258,150],"class_list":["post-792","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-opinion-analysis","tag-gulf-war","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-middle-east","tag-tehran","tag-trump","tag-trump-2-0","tag-us"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thesilknews.com\/en\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/792","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thesilknews.com\/en\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thesilknews.com\/en\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thesilknews.com\/en\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thesilknews.com\/en\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=792"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thesilknews.com\/en\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/792\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":794,"href":"https:\/\/thesilknews.com\/en\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/792\/revisions\/794"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thesilknews.com\/en\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=792"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thesilknews.com\/en\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=792"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thesilknews.com\/en\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=792"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}