Once you get involved with silver, you can no longer stay calm. One day you’ll be flying high with the joy of a long green candle, the next day you’ll be staring at the ceiling wondering, “Why did I buy this?”
Throughout history, silver has been both currency and a playground; since the 80s, it’s been a horror-thriller movie.
Note: This article is not investment advice.
Long Time Ago: Silver Was in the Market
In the days of silver:
Soldiers’ sallary,
Merchants’ cash box,
The voice of the market.
Gold was in the palace, silver was in the market. While the people carried it in their pockets, gold sparkled in the palace.
1971 – The Game Begins
The link between gold and the dollar was severed. Money began to be printed without limit, and the market became familiar with liquidity.
Silver, from that day on:
Rises quickly,
Falls quickly,
Loves manipulation.
1980 – “Silver Is Ours, the World Is Yours” (The Hunt Brothers)
The Hunt Brothers entered the scene, amassing tons of physical silver. The market dried up, prices soared.
The famous question of the era:
…Is there any silver?
…There is, but it’s with the Hunt Brothers.
Everyone took note:
“Silver soars through manipulation.”
And the black Thursday of economic history
The rules changed, leverage closed, prices crashed. And the second note:
“This time is never different.”
2011 – If Banks Are on Stage, Hold Tight to Your Wallet!
JP Morgan and the big banks were on stage.
Short positions closed and turned to long positions.
Silver soared from $8 to $48. Small investors said, “This time it’s real!” but the market reminded them of gravity.
Flying was nice.
2020 – Gold as a Safe Haven, Silver as a Short-Term Runner
Gold broke records with safe-haven demand, while silver couldn’t surpass its previous peak of $19. Pandemic-driven liquidity drained, silver fell to $11. The gold/silver ratio hit 120.
And when mandatory Fed-driven
monetary easing began, gold put on its commodity jacket. While the yellow metal moved one unit, silver ran four to five units. Ultimately, the ratio fell back to the 60s.
In short: a kind of financial obstacle course, excitement guaranteed.
The big VIX surge that came with the 2020 pandemic also gives us clear clues about when to make silver investments in our future plans.
When the VIX is above 50 and the ratio is above 100, silver can be pursued instead of gold.
2025 – Silver Takes Over the Leading Role from Gold Again
During the US-China tariff crisis, while gold was racing towards a record high of $3,500, silver failed to exceed its previous peak of $35. This mirrors the price similarities seen during the pandemic. These similarities will likely repeat in the future.
With a small-scale liquidity crisis, silver fell to $28, and the ratio rose to 107.
Gold is seen as a star, silver as trash during such periods…
Finally, expectations that the Fed would accelerate its pace of interest rate cuts, the People’s Bank of China’s acceleration of monetary easing measures, and news that silver would be added to the list of critical minerals caused the ratio to shift back in silver’s favor.
Today and the 2026 Scenario
The ratio is in the 70s today.
The critical equation for 2026:
If the Fed doesn’t hit the brakes,
If there is no deterioration in Japanese carry trade positions,
If the VIX doesn’t explode…
Silver will outperform gold. The ratio will first reach the 60s and then the 50s. It may seem far-fetched today. However, it had reached the 30 level during the big rally in 2011.
Silver Targets
Is the $90–100 range a fairy tale or a reality?
While gold is on track toward its 5,000–5,200 target, silver could complete its 40-year cup formation. Target: $90–100 range.
Winter is Long, Spring is Short for Silver
When spring comes, everyone is an analyst. When winter comes, everyone is in “I was long all along” mode.
Investors who cannot manage their risk on the way to their targets should be prepared for unpleasant surprises in their pockets. Silver is an instrument full of surprises, both up and down. It may be best to follow it with trailing stops after certain levels. Determining the levels and risk management is up to you.
The most important issue we need to pay attention to is our misconception about the safe haven perception.
Silver is not a safe haven. It soars with manipulation, surges with liquidity, and crashes with crisis.
And it’s not just the chart that races—the heart races too.
It doesn’t rise without exhaustion. It doesn’t surge without frustration.
It doesn’t let its owner or those who want to own it breathe easy.
Writer: Tekin Sekmez
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