Is the Time for the Turkish Stock Market in 2026?

The clock is ticking for the Turkish stock market.
This is not a panic alarm, but a “wake up and don’t miss the train” alarm.
This article is not investment advice. If it were, it wouldn’t be written so clearly.

INTEREST RATES: EVERYONE GRABBED, EVERYONE IS STRAINED

First, the fundamental issue: interest rates.
Interest rates will fall in 2026. Not overnight; gradually. Financial transformations happen like this. Big money moves silently. As interest rates fall, the attractiveness of money market funds will decrease. The havens we cling to today for “risk-free returns” will become commonplace tomorrow.
So where will this money go?
“Gold?”
“Silver?”
“Precious metals?”
They are also part of the story, but they are no longer in the forefront. Gold and silver have largely reached where they should be. Perhaps another move will come in the first quarter of 2026. But after that, the picture will be calmer.
Meanwhile, I expect the general commodity market to continue on its way.
Energy
Industrial metals
Agriculture
But the main issue for Turkish investors is not commodities.
Interest rates and gold.
Interest rates will lose their appeal.
Gold and silver will slow down. And at this point, the Istanbul Stock Exchange, which has been stagnant for a long time, will become attractive again for Turkish investors.

There’s a truth everyone feels but few talk about: withholding tax.

Unless you buy physical gold from a jeweler, almost everything is subject to withholding tax.
17.5%.
This rate is not a detail to be underestimated.
But what about BIST funds and stocks?
No withholding tax.
That’s where the math begins, and the interpretation ends.
Over time, money from interest and gold will change direction, even if it doesn’t want to. This isn’t a matter of choice.
Money has no emotions.
Let’s get to the political dimension.
I am a writer who politically advocates for Turkey’s alliance with Eurasian countries rather than America. But when it comes to the Turkish stock market, ideology is set aside. What foreign investors look at is clear: risk, return, balance.

Constant tension with US, or a more moderate tone?

The answer is not open to debate.
A moderate tone is a catalyst for hot money.
It doesn’t like it, but it comes.
Because money is not ethical, it is opportunistic.
And cycles.

As those who follow me know, I look at cycles. Especially 4-year cycles. Liquidity doesn’t follow a straight line. I value sine waves.
Let’s rewind the calendar.
Year 2022.
US markets:
S&P 500 is falling.
Nasdaq is in disarray.
Gold and silver are under pressure.
Istanbul Stock Exchange?
Liquidity is strong.
And the result:
Approximately 197% increase.
The same year.
The same world.
The opposite direction.
I don’t expect the same rate in 2026. But I’m saying this:
While world markets are struggling, the possibility of the Turkish stock market diverging is historically strong.
Past data says so.

In short:

Interest rates are falling.
Gold is resting.
Tax pressure is increasing.
Liquidity is changing direction.
And the Istanbul Stock Exchange is back on the scene.
The question for 2026 is not:
“Will the stock market rise?”
The real question is:
“While you’re rising, are you still hesitating?”

Author: Tekin Sekmez

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